by ilse alfonsiDo you believe in horoscopes? The Barnum effect (sometimes referred to as the Forer effect) is a psychological phenomenon that suggests people tend to accept generic personality descriptions, such as horoscopes, as highly accurate and specifically relevant to their unique personalities (Fichten & Sunerton, 1983). This phenomenon was first noted by psychologist Bertram Forer (1949) when he gave psychology students a test and told them they would be given a personalised personality profile based on their results. In reality, they were given the same generalised Barnum profile, which included thirteen general statements such as “you are often critical of yourself,” “you have a lot of unused potential,” and “at times you are extroverted and sociable, while at other times you are introverted and reserved” (Rogers & Soule, 2009). Students considered their personality descriptions as very accurate even though they were all given the same exact profile. Horoscope writers, tarot card readers, and psychics employ similar tactics to convince others that they can predict their future (Ivtzan, 2007; Fichten, & Sunerton, 1983). There is a large body of literature pointing to the existence of the Barnum effect, including the work of Fichten and Sunerton (1983). In this study, twelve personality descriptions were taken from horoscope booklets (to correspond with the twelve zodiac signs), whilst a thirteenth personality description was based on the Barnum profile and included generalised Barnum statements. Findings show that the Barnum paragraph was considered the most accurate according to the participants when they did not know which zodiac signs the descriptions were referring to. Even when they did know which zodiac signs the descriptions reflected, the Barnum paragraph was considered by participants to be just as accurate as the description of their own zodiac sign. This shows that using widely applicable statements such as “you have a lot of unused potential” leads to believable horoscopes. Whilst these are generalised statements, people may tend to believe that they are more applicable to themselves than to someone else. Fichten and Sunerton (1983) also established that familiarity with horoscope statements results in a higher perceived accuracy of them (which then leads to stronger beliefs). Their study surveyed 366 university students to ascertain how often they read horoscopes and astrologically-based personality profiles, how familiar they were with zodiac sign characteristics (e.g., someone who knows they are an Aries may know that Aries individuals are thought to be highly ambitious), and how useful and accurate they felt zodiac personality descriptions were. The results of the study show that those with stronger background knowledge of zodiac signs rated their own sign's description as more accurate and personally useful when compared to individuals who had never read a description of their own sign. These results were true even when participants did not know which zodiac signs the descriptions referred to. This is due to familiarity, as pre-existing knowledge of zodiac sign characteristics was associated with experiencing horoscope descriptions as more personal. For example, if one knows Aries are considered ambitious, the statement “as an Aries, you are a very driven individual” seems accurate, and the person may then start to include “ambitious” as a unique personality trait. They may then recall situations in which they were ambitious (e.g., achieving a long-term goal) to provide themselves with behavioural confirmation that the above statement is an accurate personalised description of themselves. The Barnum effect also brings up further questions on how believing in likely made-up events or descriptions extends further into the supernatural. Wiseman and Watt (2006) looked at to what degree individuals who believed they had psychic powers possess certain psychological attributes causing them to misattribute paranormal causation to situations that can be scientifically explained. The authors suggest that probability misjudgements, poor general cognitive abilities, the tendency to find a link between distantly related events, and a propensity to fantasise may encourage a belief in the supernatural. Their review of research in this area considered two key types of psychic ability (Irwin, 2004): extra-sensory perception (ESP; the ability to communicate via channels not currently recognised by science, such as clairvoyance) and psychokinesis (PK; the ability to control objects or other living organisms using unfamiliar means, such as causing objects to levitate). Wiseman and Watt (2006) argue that there is considerable evidence to support a relationship between belief in these types of psychic ability and fantasy proneness, which is a propensity to become so deeply absorbed in a fantasy that it is difficult to know whether the experience is purely imaginary or caused by an external source (Lynn & Rhue, 1988). Yet it remains true that results are inconsistent between studies of the phenomena. As well as this, these researchers find that people can attribute psychic abilities to an unusual experience by underestimating the probability of the experience happening. In other words, those who are unable to accurately judge how probable a certain situation is are more likely to consider their experiences as psychic in nature and are more likely to reject coincidence as an explanation (Wiseman & Watt, 2006). Tobacyk et al. (1988) looked at the acceptance phenomenon (which is tied to paranormal beliefs) and found significant evidence for the Barnum effect. The researchers asked 128 university students to complete a personality assessment and ‘personalised’ personality feedback was generated for each respondent using the thirteen previously mentioned Barnum statements, again forming the sense of a personalised and accurate description. 76% of participants rated their personality profiles as either ‘excellent’ or ‘good’ in terms of accuracy, evidencing the potential presence of the Barnum effect. This finding can be applied to some practices of spiritualism, such as psychic readings. Spiritualists, or more often Tarot readers, make it look like they understand their clients on an intimate level using general Barnum statements (Tobacyk et al., 1988). The Barnum effect provides an explanation as to why horoscopes or Tarot readings are perceived as accurate. This could perhaps be further extended into the investigation of exploring the supernatural and the psychic, where psychological phenomena (i.e. proneness to fantasise) may result in beliefs which can, in fact, be scientifically explained. However, while the perceptual accuracy of Tarot readings and horoscopes has a psychological explanation, such services can provide therapeutic-like functions and provide reassurance and comfort for those who cannot or choose not to access clinical therapy (Mayer, 2021). This indicates that they can play an important role within culture, society, and mental wellbeing. References
Colman, A. M. (2015). Oxford dictionary of psychology. Oxford University Press. Fichten, C. S., & Sunerton, B. (1983). Popular horoscopes and the “Barnum Effect.” The Journal of Psychology, 114(1), 123–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/00223980.1983.9915405 Forer, B. R. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: a classroom demonstration of gullibility. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44(1), 118–123. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0059240 Irwin, H. J. (2004). An introduction to parapsychology. McFarland. Ivtzan, I. (2007). Tarot cards: A literature review and evaluation of psychic versus psychological explanations. Journal of Parapsychology, 71(1), 139–149. Lynn, S. J., & Rhue, J. W. (1988). Fantasy proneness. Hypnosis, developmental antecedents, and psychopathology. The American psychologist, 43(1), 35–44. https://doi.org/10.1037//0003-066x.43.1.35 Mayer, B. A. (2021, June 4). 8 Ways Tarot Cards Can Help Your Mental Health... or Hurt It. Healthline. https://www.healthline.com/health/mind-body/tarot-card-can-help-your-mental-health-or-hurt-it Rogers, P., & Soule, J. (2009). Cross-Cultural differences in the acceptance of Barnum profiles supposedly derived from Western versus Chinese astrology. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 40(3), 381–399. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022022109332843 Tobacyk, J., Milford, G., Springer, T., & Tobacyk, Z. (1988). Paranormal beliefs and the Barnum effect. Journal of Personality Assessment, 52(4), 737–739. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327752jpa5204_13 Wiseman, R., & Watt, C. (2006). Belief in psychic ability and the misattribution hypothesis: A qualitative review. British Journal of Psychology, 97(3), 323–338. https://doi.org/10.1348/000712605x72523
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